Saffron Restaurants reservation Smoke again – The Michigan Weather Center

Smoke again – The Michigan Weather Center

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Here are some more aurora photos from SS (thanks very much):

SS


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We have a continuation of last year’s fires from our friends in Canada, with little or no snow, the leaves that fell last fall are not decomposing and staying moist as they should, which is fuel for the fire. We may have the same problem in the US this year. Below you will find the air quality at 5 am and the smoke map:


NWS forecast

Today

Partly cloudy, then gradually sunny, with a high near 72 km/h. Northeast wind around 16 km/h, with gusts up to 45 km/h.

This evening

Mostly clear, with a low around 47. East wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday

After 2 p.m. 20 percent chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. East wind around 6 mph, becoming calm.

Thursday evening

A small chance of rain and thunderstorms before 8 p.m., then a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m., then probably a shower after 5 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South-southwest wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the evening. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts will be between four and a quarter inches, except higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Chance of showers, with a chance of thunder after 11 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday night

Before 2 a.m. there is a 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Saturday night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Sunday night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Monday

Chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Monday night

Chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Tuesday

Chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.


Weather history

1855: A tornado destroys at least one building as it moves from Jackson to Washtenaw County.

1972: A tornado caused minor damage north of Potterville in Eaton County.

On May 15, 1942, Flint was in the midst of a hot streak from the 14th to the 18th when high temperatures ranged from 91 to 93 degrees.

Also on May 15, 2007, there were 40 reports of high winds and hail in Southeast Michigan, including tennis ball-sized hail in Bad Ax and a measured wind gust of 75 mph in Howell.

1896: An estimated F5 tornado struck Sherman, Texas, killing 73 people; 60 of them in the center. Tornado victims were found up to 350 meters away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister.

1957: An F4 tornado killed twenty people in Silverton, Texas. A 5,000-pound gasoline storage tank was reportedly carried 1.5 miles and fell into a lake. Residents said the tornado “looked like red sand, boiling and rumbling.”

1968: An F5 tornado also passed through Butler, Chickasaw, Floyd, Franklin and Howard counties in northeastern Iowa. The tornado touched down from north of Hansell to the northeast, passing east of Aredale and Marble Rock before devastating Charles City. The tornado became more massive and intense as it approached Charles City. The massive funnel passed directly through the city, destroying 337 homes and causing approximately $30 million in damage. The tornado continued northeast and hit Elma. From there, the tornado turned north and dissipated south of Chester, 4 miles south of the Minnesota border. Nearly 2,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. All thirteen deaths occurred in Floyd County. There were 450 injuries reported in Floyd County and 12 injuries in Howard County. Another F5 tornado moved north-northeast from southwest of Oelwein to Maynard and east of Randalia in Fayette County, IA. Houses were razed and swept away in both Oelwein and Maynard. The warning sirens sounded for only 15 seconds before the power went out in Oelwein. Nearly 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed along the path and 34 people had to be hospitalized. Nearly 1,000 families were affected. In addition to these F5 tornadoes, an F2 tornado touched down 6 miles south of Cresco, IA and two weak F1 tornadoes touched down in Dodge County, Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail also fell in Fayette County, IA.

1972: The worst ice flooding in the memory of ancient residents occurred along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers ‘flowed as one’. The towns of Oscarville and Napasskiak are completely flooded.


Forecast discussion

- Drying Out Today, But Showers/Storms Return Late Thursday

The latest GOES low and mid level WV imagery shows a slow erosion
in moisture across central Lower Michigan this morning. RAP13
and GFS relative humidity layer (850mb-250mb) trends indicate
only a gradual decrease in moisture from N to S today. As such,
the expectation is for areas near and north of I-96 to see sun
break through by mid to late morning, but areas south of I-96 (and
especially toward I-94) may take until early to mid afternoon for
clouds to erode. Any leftover light showers and sprinkles are
expected to end by mid morning across our far southern forecast
area near I-94.

For Thursday, a weakening upper trough will push into the Great
Lakes region. Synoptic forcing for ascent will somewhat be there
with the upper trough and a decent ULJ, though GFS/HRRR model
soundings show equilibrium levels not getting much above
500mb-400mb during the daytime, indicative of modest convective
potential. Low level moisture advection may take some time to
materialize across the region, impacting areas near and south of
I-96 first. 00z HREF guidance does show some marginal SB CAPE
possible in this area, perhaps a few hundred J/kg by late
afternoon. There could be a scattering of showers and a few
thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon especially near and west
of U.S. 131, but it appears most precipitation will hold off
until after dark.

- Showers/storms Thursday night and Friday

We`ll have several chances for showers and thunderstorms during the
period. However, much of the weekend looks dry.

Thursday night and Friday will see the highest chances for rain as a
cold front moves across the cwa. Low to moderate instability is
progd with this system with MUCAPE values in the 500-1k j/kg range.
Isolated to scattered storms are likely during this time frame.
Shear values in the 35-40 kt range suggest that a few storms may
skew toward being strong late Thursday night and Friday morning,
however early morning timing usually doesn`t bode well for stronger
storms and the short wave accompanying the front isn`t all that
impressive either.

- Chance of stronger storms Monday/Tuesday

The weather early next week bears watching. West southwest flow
aloft will bring several short waves from the Plains into the Great
Lakes and each will have an impressive surface low. The first low
will develop Sunday night over KS/IA and then track toward Lower MI
Monday. The GFS isn`t as aggressive as the Euro is but develops
showers/storms near a wave on a frontal boundary that moves across
the cwa Monday. Most of the instability and dynamics remain south of
the cwa with the GFS, but nonetheless produces some rain.

The bigger deal may be Tuesday as both models produce an impressive
surface low over the MO Valley and push a warm front toward the cwa.
Additionally, 40-50kts shear develop in response to a strong LLJ to
the south and higher mid level winds poking in from the southwest.
This scenario has the potential for stronger storms.

Highs will be in the 70s through the period.